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Airbus Global Market Forecast 2021- 2040


The aviation industry stands at the crossroads of transformation in an era marked by rapid technological advancements and a growing consciousness of environmental sustainability. Airbus, one of the world's leading aircraft manufacturers, has unveiled its Global Market Forecast from 2021 to 2040. This forecast provides valuable insights into the future of aviation and sheds light on the industry's commitment to reducing its environmental footprint.

 

A Shift Towards Sustainability

One of the key takeaways from Airbus' forecast is the gradual shift in demand dynamics within the aviation sector. The industry will transform over the next two decades as the demand for new aircraft progressively transitions from fleet expansion to the accelerated replacement of older, less fuel-efficient models. Airbus anticipates the need for approximately 39,000 new passenger and freighter aircraft by 2040, with a significant portion of this demand driven by the replacement of aging, less eco-friendly planes.

This replacement trend includes approximately 15,250 aircraft, replacing older, less fuel-efficient models. The forecast divides this demand into different categories: about 29,700 small aircraft (such as the A220 and A320 families), around 5,300 medium-sized aircraft (including the A321XLR and A330neo), and about 4,000 large aircraft (represented by the A350).

By 2040, most commercial aircraft in operation will belong to the latest generation, contributing substantially to improving the overall CO2 efficiency of global commercial fleets.

 

Factors Driving Demand

Several factors continue to propel the demand for air transport. These include global economic growth, the rise of the middle class, and an increasing desire to explore new destinations and connect with others across the globe. Despite facing significant disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic, passenger traffic has demonstrated its resilience and is expected to resume annual growth at 3.9% annually.

In addition to passenger transport, cargo demand is experiencing a boost, mainly due to the growth of e-commerce. The forecast anticipates a 4.7% annual increase in express freight and a 2.7% growth in general cargo, representing roughly 75% of the market. Over the next two decades, the industry will require approximately 2,440 freighter aircraft, with 880 of them being new-build units.

 

The Role of Sustainability

The aviation industry recognizes the urgent need for sustainability, and Airbus is at the forefront of this movement. The forecast underscores the importance of replacing older, less efficient aircraft with modern, eco-friendly models. It highlights that the world increasingly demands sustainable flying, and Airbus is prepared to meet this demand.

One significant step towards sustainability is using Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF). Airbus has certified all its aircraft, including the A220, A320neo Family, A330neo, and A350, to fly with a blend of 50% SAF, with plans to achieve 100% SAF usage by 2030. Moreover, Airbus is pioneering the ZEROe initiative to introduce zero-emission aircraft from 2035 onwards.

 

Conclusion

The Airbus Global Market Forecast 2021-2040 paints a dynamic picture of the aviation industry's future. As we look ahead, the demand for new aircraft will be driven by growth and the imperative to replace older, less efficient models. Sustainability is at the forefront of this transformation. Airbus is committed to reducing emissions and introducing innovative technologies that align with the industry's goal of achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.

As economies recover and the aviation sector evolves, it's clear that replacement and sustainability are the cornerstones of the industry's future. With a focus on innovation and environmental responsibility, Airbus is poised to play a pivotal role in shaping the skies of tomorrow.

 

 

 

FAQs

What is the critical takeaway from Airbus' Global Market Forecast for 2021-2040? 

Airbus foresees a shift in demand from fleet expansion to replacing older, less fuel-efficient aircraft, with the need for approximately 39,000 new passenger and freighter aircraft by 2040.

 

What factors are driving the demand for air transport? 

Global economic growth, the rising middle class, and the desire for increased connectivity and exploration drive demand for air transport.

 

How is Airbus contributing to sustainability in aviation? 

Airbus is actively working on sustainability initiatives, including using Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) and developing zero-emission aircraft as part of the ZEROe initiative, to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.

 

How will the aviation industry address the need for highly skilled personnel in the coming years? 

The growth of the aviation industry will require over 550,000 new pilots and over 710,000 highly skilled technicians over the next 20 years, focusing on maintenance, training, and other related services.

 

What is the industry's progress in reducing carbon emissions? 

The aviation industry has already achieved a 53% decline in CO2 emissions per revenue passenger kilometer since 1990. Airbus' product range supports at least a 20% CO2 efficiency gain over previous-generation aircraft.

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